Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 100010.775122 105383.670880 110750.719712 116510.674055 122513.684998 128581.973559 135176.271925
2025-10-12 92012.534878 100296.415619 108796.205618 118158.667321 128170.919656 138546.149599 150099.236647
2025-10-19 85843.818886 96116.623474 106882.161799 118983.267479 132184.122585 146125.148731 161938.202239
2025-10-26 80643.727492 92364.232904 104867.025673 119160.662784 135011.922529 152014.275230 171592.135191
2025-11-02 76581.284110 89471.215601 103436.356371 119637.639816 137860.670649 157668.672102 180770.781291
2025-11-09 72819.242719 86629.764531 101804.397538 119643.294118 139964.722505 162317.055552 188684.007437
2025-11-16 70286.145832 84995.287975 101363.561335 120835.084530 143268.731134 168205.035329 197915.877028
2025-11-23 67269.945396 82632.208255 99935.505803 120752.350605 144993.800396 172207.235673 204936.513709
2025-11-30 65551.786317 81674.868450 100035.237191 122348.943434 148583.841951 178296.165635 214329.903874
2025-12-07 63683.248902 80438.636447 99720.559611 123382.142496 151456.400314 183518.561111 222708.900714
2025-12-14 61412.514126 78620.080041 98627.477613 123412.487302 153081.433976 187240.122671 229311.189187
2025-12-21 59435.438150 77072.688364 97782.124815 123668.058825 154915.608446 191167.123900 236135.129757
2025-12-28 58431.970137 76692.150991 98331.512228 125607.553607 158790.970306 197561.621081 245972.521251
2026-01-04 57297.443238 76102.816192 98590.928167 127170.380102 162205.011356 203420.993352 255215.106923
2026-01-11 55872.058234 75093.783699 98287.481312 128004.076587 164707.109960 208178.791483 263150.842479
2026-01-18 54212.899391 73730.054151 97492.071226 128183.134026 166371.978546 211905.832802 269841.149984
2026-01-25 52806.631902 72637.849785 96990.456747 128687.428101 168407.516439 216067.619154 277062.754172
2026-02-01 51244.580272 71293.372740 96124.758429 128692.977809 169791.227111 219413.792193 283285.898906
2026-02-08 50343.478845 70773.118404 96275.399738 129957.935368 172733.810641 224675.508187 291881.012752
2026-02-15 48882.862154 69474.446750 95390.658718 129870.097433 173948.835067 227788.050166 297824.150554
2026-02-22 48276.296537 69280.612465 95909.080624 131564.640803 177413.331754 233704.141389 307274.998865
2026-03-01 47443.695387 68757.263110 95976.964314 132661.102131 180109.462571 238666.397099 315560.401924
2026-03-08 46201.338415 67647.117235 95246.286626 132693.303237 181423.427719 241884.887243 321666.813906